Quantum computing has long been framed as a distant risk to cryptography, something to worry about decades from now. That narrative is starting to shift.

Two new research papers, one from Google Quantum AI and another from a relatively unknown startup called Orotomic, are pushing the conversation forward in a meaningful way. Both focus on improving how Shor’s algorithm can be executed, the quantum algorithm known for breaking RSA and elliptic curve cryptography.

Instead of asking whether quantum computers can break cryptography, the focus is now on how efficiently they can do it and how soon that efficiency reaches real-world thresholds.

• What Google Actually Achieved
• Orotomic’s Physical Layer Advantage
• Why This Matters for Crypto
• The Timeline is Shrinking

What Google Actually Achieved

Google’s research focuses on improving the logical layer of quantum computation. Their work targets breaking 256-bit elliptic curve cryptography, specifically the secp256k1 curve that underpins Bitcoin and Ethereum.

According to their estimates, the attack could be executed using roughly 1000 logical qubits. This is significant because previous estimates required far more resources or deeper circuits, making the attack less practical.

Another key improvement is circuit depth. Lower depth means fewer sequential quantum operations, which directly translates into faster execution and reduced error accumulation.

In simple terms, Google has made the path to breaking elliptic curve cryptography shorter, cleaner, and more achievable than before.

Orotomic’s Physical Layer Advantage

While Google focuses on logical optimisation, Orotomic takes a different route.

Their approach combines logical improvements with optimisations at the physical hardware level, specifically targeting neutral atom quantum systems. Their estimate suggests that around 26,000 physical qubits could be enough to break 256-bit elliptic curve signatures.

At first glance, this may seem like a large number. But in quantum computing, the distinction between physical and logical qubits is crucial. Logical qubits require layers of error correction, meaning thousands of physical qubits may be needed to create stable computation.

Orotomic’s contribution is in reducing the overhead required at the physical level, effectively narrowing the gap between theory and implementation.

Today is a monumentous day for quantum computing and cryptography. Two breakthrough papers just landed (links in next tweet). Both papers improve Shor's algorithm, infamous for cracking RSA and elliptic curve cryptography. The two results compound, optimising separate layers of…

— Justin Drake (@drakefjustin) March 31, 2026

Why This Matters for Crypto

Cryptographic systems we use today are based elliptic curve cryptography. Bitcoin and Ethereum and most blockchain networks rely on the idea that it's really hard to figure out a private key from a public key.

Then quantum computing comes along and changes that. If a quantum computer is powerful enough to run something called Shor’s algorithm it could find keys from public keys that are out in the open.

This would compromise wallets, transactions, and potentially entire ecosystems. Until recently, this threat was considered too far in the future to require immediate action. These new findings suggest that assumption may no longer hold.

The research also highlights two major hardware approaches.

• Superconducting quantum systems, like those used by Google, operate at extremely high speeds. They benefit from fast clock cycles but require complex infrastructure and strong error correction.
• Neutral atom systems, as explored by Orotomic, operate more slowly but may offer better scalability and stability over time.

These two paths represent different trade-offs. One prioritises speed and immediate performance, while the other focuses on long-term scalability and physical efficiency. It is still unclear which approach will ultimately dominate, but both are advancing steadily.

The Timeline is Shrinking

One of the takeaways is that people now think that by the early 2030s quantum systems could get to a point where they pose real risks to current cryptographic standards. This is a deal because even before quantum computers get fully powerful they could still cause problems.

For blockchain networks like Bitcoin and Ethereum this means planning for quantum security is now a must.

Another important thing to consider is how fast quantum computers can work. Earlier people thought it would take days or weeks to break a key. This gave us some time to detect and fix the problem.

New improvements are making quantum computers faster. They can now break a key in minutes. This completely changes the threat. If quantum computers can extract keys quickly we might not have time to react once a public key is exposed. Attackers could quickly target high-value wallets or contracts with warning.

Contrarian take on this Google quantum paper: long term this might be the best thing thats happened to crypto infrastructure in years.

Like the details are scary right, 20x more efficient attack on secp256k1, breaking ECDSA keys within minutes, and Google so concerned they… pic.twitter.com/qcRwGlbkSv

— Sandeep | CEO, Polygon Foundation (※,※) (@sandeepnailwal) March 31, 2026

With progress fixing errors is still a major challenge in quantum computing. Quantum systems are noisy by nature.

To do computations they need to use error correction techniques. These techniques combine physical qubits into one logical qubit. Some people think we might need around 100 qubits per logical qubit. Others think it could be closer to 10 to 1.

For now the immediate risk to Bitcoin and Ethereum is low. Most wallets are not always exposed. Public keys are only revealed when transactions happen. Best practices already say to avoid using the address multiple times. However long-term risks are real.

Dormant wallets, reused addresses and any system that relies on public keys could become vulnerable once quantum capabilities improve. This is why discussions around quantum cryptography are becoming more popular among developers.

These breakthroughs do not mean that quantum computers can break crypto today. There is still a gap between what quantum computers can theoretically do and what they can actually do in real-world systems.

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